The future of airport noise: a comprehensive analysis of population exposure at Dublin airport 2023 to 2030

There are conflicting trends in the impact of aircraft noise as increased air traffic is offset by advancements in low noise aircraft technology. This paper considers the case of Dublin Airport and projects the noise impact of operations over the timeline to 2030. The airport projects an (Average Annual Growth Rate) of 1.2 %, translating to an estimated rise in annual air traffic movements from over 212736 flights in 2023 to around 244635 flights in 2030. This estimated increase poses not only logistical challenges for airports but also an escalation in noise pollution in the surrounding areas. The most significant challenge in predicting future airport noise exposure lies in the shifts in aircraft fleet distribution and the adoption of technology in newer generations of aircraft. This paper evaluates the most likely combination of fleet distribution and technology uptake. In 2023, the noise footprint is projected to affect a population of approximately 105762 people with Lden ≥ 55 dB. By 2030, this exposure increases to 168267 people. The increase in air traffic numbers also leads to a notable increase in nighttime flights, bringing nighttime noise exposure Ln ≥ 50 dB from 127720 in 2023 to 189376 in 2030.